Source: NOAA 

This year’s El Niño climate patterns have the potential to be the largest in 150 years, demonstrating a new climate issue as 2027 approaches. With global warming and these aggressive climate patterns combining, temperatures face potential for extreme growth. These forecasts indicate that the colossal weather patterns will result in severe weather around the world in 2027. In addition to an increase in natural disasters and rising temperatures, the new El Niño displays a significant health threat, as mosquito-borne diseases become more frequent among wet and humid environments. As emergency managers and meteorologists prepare for hazardous weather, global companies and organizations can prepare as well. Changes in weather patterns such as El Niño, La Niño, and AMOC, all influence energy demand and sea levels, interrupting business operations, supply chains, and global economies.  

As reported by Responsible Alpha one year ago in Atlantic HVAC Collapse: Part Deux and two years ago in HVAC Collapse in NATO: Atlantic Current Slowing, Foreshadows Economic Chaos, as greenhouse gas emissions warm and freshen the North Atlantic, a new study warns that the AMOC could collapse more likely than we thought, reshaping weather patterns, sea levels, and ecosystems for centuries. While uncertainty remains, the direction of risk is clear. Businesses and investors that understand and prepare for AMOC-related impacts will be better positioned to manage climate volatility, protect assets, and build long-term resilience in a changing world. 

Why this Matters  

• Global Temperatures: a record-breaking El Niño means temperatures will surpass global thresholds, reaching 1.7 °C in 2027. 

• Severe Weather: California experiences catastrophic flooding, impacting growers in Central Valley as they struggle to navigate this super El Niño. Additionally, in May of 2025, the fishing industry in Peru faced supply shocks that slowed GDP growth to 1.8% 

• Scientific Analysis: As more severe climate events occur, companies need to deploy scientific analysis teams to convert raw climate data into real interpretations, allowing companies to act before potential damage. 

• Supply Chain Shock: strong El Niño events result in multidimensional supply shocks, costing anywhere from $686 billion to $3.1 trillion over the next couple of years. This includes higher food and energy prices, as well as health implications that can damage businesses.  

• Major Economic Consequences: supply shocks can directly impact emerging markets, specifically food-centered markets in regions that face food-insecurity  

1.7 °C 

The average global temperature threshold is based on the 2015 Paris Agreement is 1.5°C, but El Niño event can push temperatures beyond that threshold. In 2027 alone, global temperatures may be pushed to 1.7 °C, showing a clear violation of the 1.5°C threshold. At the same time, as global temperatures rise, these extreme weather patterns will only become more frequent. As global warming pushes temperatures to above the 1.5°C threshold, more El Niño events will occur.  

What Exactly is El Niño and La Niña? 

When two different climate patterns occur that go against normal weather conditions, this is known as El Niño and La Niña. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle results in severe weather changes, negatively impacting ecosystems and economies. The ENSO represents an entirely natural shift in temperature of winds and ocean surface in the Pacific Ocean. These cycles typically last a full year but often go beyond the one-year mark and become a multiple-year occurrence.  

An El Niño results in weaker trade winds and warm water being pushed east, creating a path to the west coast of the America’s. Aside from more severe weather, El Niño impacts marine ecosystems significantly. It stops deep water nutrients from coming up to the surface, a process known as upwelling, resulting in less phytoplankton. This creates a chain reaction, affecting fish who rely on the phytoplankton, increased forest fires and droughts, and extreme participation.  

El Niño

Source: NOAA 

La Niña 

Source: NOAA 

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 

 
The AMOC HVAC balancing act keeps temperatures in the U.S., Canada, and EU 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) warmer than it would otherwise be. AMOC also brings nutrients, oxygen and heat north from tropical waters while moving colder water south — a balancing act that keeps both sides of the Atlantic 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Celsius) warmer than it would otherwise be. 

 
A recent study extended climate model projections beyond the usual 2100 cutoff to 2500. It found that under high-emission scenarios, about 70% of model simulations led to a complete AMOC collapse. This is a risk much higher than previously believed. 

Even under intermediate and low emissions, the probabilities remained concerning: 37% and 25%, respectively. The findings suggest that what was once considered a “low-likelihood, high-impact” event may now be a plausible long-term outcome under continued carbon emissions. 

The last time the AMOC switched modes during the most recent ice age, the climate near Greenland increased by 18 to 27 degrees Fahrenheit (10 to 15 degrees Celsius) within a decade. 

The AMOC can exist in two stable states: a stronger, faster one that we rely upon today, and another that is much slower and weaker. Previous estimates predicted that the current would probably switch to its weaker mode sometime in the next century.  

 
The AMOC’s “engine” relies on cold, salty water in the North Atlantic becoming dense enough to sink. But today, that balance is shifting. Surface waters are warming and freshening, making it less dense, due to Greenland ice melt, sea-ice loss, increased rainfall, and river runoff. These changes weaken the deep-water formation that drives the overturning. 

 
As this process slows, heat transport to the north declines, weakening the entire circulation. The study’s model results indicate that once deep mixing collapses, the AMOC could wind down over decades, with lasting impacts on climate, ecosystems, and sea level. 

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is now forecast to be 30% weaker by 2040. 

The Forecast 

Since June of 2026, sea surface temperatures and wind patterns demonstrate significant changes in strength, indicating a potential extreme weather event occurring by the end of this year. The forecasts state that El Niño will continue almost halfway through 2027. As stated by NOAA, El Niño events are tied to the acute weather occurring this summer around the world.  

The atmosphere in the Pacific is being monitored by NOAA, analyzing a pattern specifically known as the Walker Circulation. This atmospheric circulation, or an ‘overturning cell of an atmospheric loop’, is when the loop moves east-to-west due to temperature and pressure changes. Rising western air and sinking eastern air create one large and ever flowing loop. As the Walker Circulation flows east, El Niño comes to life.  

El Niño Data Analysis 

Source: Responsible Alpha 

Two datasets, the NOAA El Niño 3.4 data set and the Berkeley Earth global temperature anomaly data set, were used by Responsible Alpha to create this graph. Both data sets were cleaned and merged by month and year, then the average temperature anomaly was calculated for each year. By using annual averages, the graph is easily readable for all audiences interested in the climate impacts of El Niño. Based on this graph, it’s clear that global temperatures have significantly increased from 1956 to 2026, indicating a crucial pattern. From the 1970s onward, temperatures began rising at a more consistent pace, reaching record-high temperatures in recent years.  

The dashed orange lines indicate major El Niño events, showing that these events typically occur at high temperatures. Both the 2015-16 and 2023-24 El Niño events demonstrate this, as the 2023 event occurs at a much higher temperature than the event starting in 2015. This suggests that while the El Niño can increase global temperatures, these events typically occur on top of long-term warming rather than being the sole reason for the warming itself. The data ultimately highlights the clear increase in global temperatures every year, as well as the idea that major El Niño events make warm years even warmer.  

Take Action  

Forecast economic impact from El Nino / ENSO demonstrates a recurring pattern that becomes easily measurable, showcasing the ability for decision-makers and corporations to be better prepared in the future.  

• Asset Managers: scientific projections should be crucial to strategies, rather than an afterthought within quarterly performance analysis. 

• Asset Owners: start including scientific analysis when calculating the impact of climate change on future required payments to beneficiaries.

• Corporations: require natural resource scientists on their board.

• Banks: need to include scientific analysis in their value at risk modeling when assessing net interest margin / duration calculations.